Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $428,850$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.81 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{413,257.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 90.3)}}\) (asimptote \(413,257.0\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $19,614$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(646 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,529.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 132.1)}}\) (asimptote \(36,529.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $115,049$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $359,731$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.92 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{356,252.4}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 95.2)}}\) (asimptote \(356,252.4\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,608$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(265 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,203.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 97.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10,203.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,712$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,733,677$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(6.96 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,399,587.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 113.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,399,587.2\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $94,104$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(5.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,498.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 92.5)}}\) (asimptote \(102,498.9\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $576,697$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $86,232$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(9.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,287.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 94.1)}}\) (asimptote \(99,287.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,736$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(748 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,397.8}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 70.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,397.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $44,283$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $80,153$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116,622.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 123.2)}}\) (asimptote \(116,622.9\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,153$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(46.5 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,348.6}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 119.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,348.6\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $52,844$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $317,651$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,274,576.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 166.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,274,576.0\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,650$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(88.4 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,538.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 148.5)}}\) (asimptote \(34,538.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $139,762$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $201,919$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{509,265.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 149.2)}}\) (asimptote \(509,265.2\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,648$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(62.9 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $109,245$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,849$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.56 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,266.4}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 147.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,266.4\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(0.497 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28.1}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 93.5)}}\) (asimptote \(28.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $628$ on 2020-08-02
